These issues matter to Inland Empire voters in November 2022 election

If the polls are right, Grace Thompson speaks for a plurality of Inland Empire voters.

“(People) want a good economy before all the other things that they want to do,” said Thompson, a 57-year-old court reporter from Riverside’s Orangecrest neighborhood. “People want to be able to pay less to put gas in their tank (and pay) less at the grocery store. A lot of our leaders are looking at other things and not that.”

But if pollsters are off, the average voter might sound more like Leila Moshref-Danesh.

“In my mind, whether I pay $2.99 or $4.99 a gallon is not really going to matter if we don’t have a democracy anymore,” the 37-year-old lawyer from Highgrove said.

Thompson, a Republican, and Moshref-Danesh, a no-party-preference voter, both plan to vote in the Nov. 8 general election, which may be determined by what’s foremost on voters’ minds come ballot-casting time.

A Public Policy Institute of California poll conducted in May found 42% of Inland-area adults and 1 in 3 Californians mentioned jobs, the economy and inflation or gas prices as the most important issue facing the state. While 50% of those polled said California was heading in the wrong direction, the number rose to 72% among Inland-area respondents.

Pocketbook issues “always come to the forefront in times of economic uncertainty, even more so for independent voters,” Marcia Godwin, a professor of public administration at the University of La Verne, said via email.

“For the Inland Empire, though, we are probably looking at relatively mild effects on election outcomes. It may be more in the nature of capping support for Democrats or making a difference in swing districts.”

Across California, 47% of voters were registered Democrats as of late May compared to 24% for Republicans, secretary of state numbers show.

The gap narrows in the Inland Empire.

Going into June, Democrats made up 41% of voters in Riverside and San Bernardino counties while 32% of Riverside County voters and 29% of San Bernardino County voters were Republicans.

Democrats have won several competitive Inland-area races since 2012, and Democratic presidential candidates have carried Riverside and San Bernardino counties since 2008. But Riverside County was the largest county in California to vote in favor of recalling Gov. Gavin Newsom and reelected a conservative sheriff in June.

Compared to coastal counties, “the inland parts of the state — the Inland Empire as well as the Central Valley — are less progressive,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS poll. “Although still leaning Democratic, they’re more moderate and it’s a more competitive area when you’re looking at local elections and elections for Assembly and Congress as well.”

As the party in power in Washington, D.C., Democrats are expected to lose control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate in November as inflation-weary voters take out frustrations at the ballot box.

But some Inland-area voters either downplayed inflation and high gas prices or didn’t mention them at all.

“No one likes paying more money for gas at the gas station or paying higher prices at the grocery store,” said Ryan Maguire, a 35-year-old Democrat from Murrieta who works in the UC system’s human resources department.

“But in my opinion … at least from the executive branch, I don’t think a lot could be done.”

Climate change and the environment are pressing issues for Maguire and David Paniagua, a 41-year-old Democrat and transportation dispatcher from Fontana.

“There are times when I go for walks with my dog in which I feel the air quality is poor, and I can only imagine how that has translated to the rest of the city and frankly, how it affects our entire Inland Empire as a whole,” Paniagua said via email.

Gun control has long been important to Moshref-Danesh. But when a gunman killed 19 Uvalde, Texas schoolchildren in May, Moshref-Danesh, who also was worried about a rise in COVID-19 cases, took her 4-year-old son out of preschool for a couple weeks.

“As a parent, you are constantly doing a risk assessment of wherever you send your child,” she said. “I think particularly lately that has become an almost impossible daily calculation. Because you’re essentially wondering when I send my child to school today, am I going to get a call?”

Abortion access, especially in the wake of the U.S. Supreme Court ruling in June striking down Roe v. Wade, is important to Maguire and Moshref-Danesh, who anticipate voting mostly or entirely for Democratic candidates in November.

“I understand that Republicans are pretty anti-abortion,” Maguire said. “That makes sense with their worldview. But to be against contraception (195 House Republicans voted against a bill protecting contraception access) that was pretty striking.”

A November ballot measure that would make abortion a constitutional right in California “may very well drive higher voter turnout, especially for women and younger voters,” Godwin said.

“Those voters are more likely to vote Democratic and not fully offset by Inland Empire social conservatives, who also will be mobilized.”

The abortion ballot measure means voters don’t have to choose between inflation and abortion rights at the polls, Shaun Bowler, a UC Riverside political science professor, said via email.

“People can come to the polls and support (abortion) access in a very direct way, and also express their frustration at (inflation),” Bowler said. “So it wouldn’t be surprising to see the ballot proposition pass, and also see Democratic candidates not do well.”

Moshref-Danesh also is paying close attention to congressional hearings on the Jan. 6 U.S. Capitol insurrection.

“I think that ultimately, people are having the wool pulled over their eyes a little and being distracted by the shiny object of gas prices when we had an assault on the Capitol, we had a concerted effort to overthrow an election,” she said.

L’Rea Robinson of San Bernardino is focusing more on local elections. “I’m looking at my city and I’m just seeing my city fall apart. San Bernardino is a big ball of a mess right now,” said Robinson, 57, who works for San Bernardino County government.

“I know we’re in the process of electing a new mayor … Actually I’m not excited about either candidate in the runoff. So it’s like I just really need to be paying attention to everything so that when town halls come, I can ask informed questions.”

Thompson said she never gave money to a political candidate until last September’s Newsom recall election. “I just think our governor has done a terrible job, a terrible job with COVID, with the lockdowns, with the vaccine mandates,” she said.

Thompson said she plans to leave California in December “because I can’t afford to live in this area anymore.”

“I mean, I could pay it,” she said. “But I don’t want to pay $3,000 a month for a two-bedroom apartment … I’ve been here for 40 years. But all of my family is in Nevada and Utah, and I can live there in a nice newer place for less money.”

After the recall, which Newsom easily survived, “I have kind of had a sense of hopelessness with regard to voting conservatives into office in California,” Thompson said.

“We’re outnumbered and I just don’t think it’s going to happen like it used to happen.”